BY FRONTLINE REPORTERS

Powerful blocs within the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, have raised the alarm over the growing influence of the National Rainbow Coalition being championed by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, warning that the arrangement could undermine APC candidates and ultimately hurt President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.

Although Wike insists that the coalition is fully committed to Tinubu’s second-term ambition, his critics argue that its decision to field candidates on different party platforms could create confusion among voters, particularly in rural communities where voters may find it difficult to distinguish between the coalition’s presidential endorsement and its opposition to APC candidates in other elections.

The controversy is already reverberating across Rivers, Kwara, Gombe and Cross River states, where the coalition has become a major factor in the unfolding 2027 political calculations.

Speaking during a media chat in Port Harcourt, Wike accused Imo State Governor and Chairman of the Progressive Governors’ Forum, Hope Uzodimma, and Kwara State Governor and Chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, of leading opposition against him.

Wike said his political disagreements with the governors would not distract him from his determination to secure Tinubu’s re-election. He also challenged those accusing him of working against APC interests to explain what support they had given him in his own political battles.

But APC-aligned sources said the coalition’s strategy could produce unintended consequences for the President. According to them, while Wike and his allies publicly canvass support for Tinubu, coalition members are simultaneously backing candidates of the PDP and other opposition parties against APC candidates in several states.

The sources expressed particular concern that voters could resort to straight-ticket voting, supporting candidates of the same party across all positions. Such a pattern, they argued, could deny Tinubu votes in states where the coalition is sponsoring candidates against APC lawmakers and governors.

They cited the 2023 experience in Oyo State, where voting patterns affected National Assembly contests, and the 2003 South-West elections, when support for President Olusegun Obasanjo’s re-election coincided with the defeat of several Alliance for Democracy, AD, candidates. The only notable exception was then-Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu, whose political structure survived the electoral wave.

The concern is particularly pronounced in Kwara, where Wike has aligned with former Senate President Bukola Saraki and other aggrieved APC members against Governor AbdulRazaq and the APC structure.

Former APC chieftain Saliu Mustapha recently defected to the PDP after losing the APC governorship ticket and subsequently receiving the PDP ticket to contest the Kwara Central senatorial seat against AbdulRazaq in 2027. Other APC members, including Kolo Jiya and two state lawmakers, have also defected to the PDP.

The development has fuelled allegations that political actors serving within or benefiting from the APC-led federal administration are deploying their influence and resources against the party’s structures at the state level.

The Kwara chapter of the Rainbow Coalition, which was formally launched in Ilorin on August 26, brings together aggrieved APC members, former aspirants and politicians from different parties. Among those associated with the movement are Yahaya Oloriegbe, Kolo Jiya, Yahaya Seriki and Dele Belgore.

Political scientist Abdul Kareem Jimoh said APC governors had legitimate reasons to be concerned, warning that the immediate political gains of the arrangement could create a more formidable challenge for the ruling party in the future.

Lawyer Mohammed Jimoh, however, argued that Wike, like every other politician, was entitled to express his political views, while media practitioner-turned-politician Raheem Adedoyin described the development in Kwara as troubling.

Rivers: Rainbow Coalition deepens political uncertainty

The political battle is even more complicated in Rivers State, where the Rainbow Coalition was originally strengthened during the bitter political crisis between Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara.

The coalition cuts across several political parties, including the PDP, APC and Labour Party, and has promised to produce consensus candidates for the 2027 governorship election.

However, the coalition’s decision to back former PDP Minority Leader in the House of Representatives, Kingsley Chinda, as its governorship candidate has generated disquiet among some members, particularly those from the riverine areas.

Chinda, an upland politician, recently emerged as the coalition’s preferred candidate after moving from the PDP to the APC. His political status has also become the subject of litigation.

The coalition has reportedly chosen the Rivers State House of Assembly Majority Leader, Major Jack, as Chinda’s running mate.

The arrangement has raised questions over the political choices facing Rivers voters, especially as other parties are fielding candidates from the riverine communities.

Dr Jackson Omenazu, Chancellor of the International Society for Social Justice and Human Rights, said the coalition needed to explain clearly what it represented.

“Rivers people are not fools. They deserve clarity, credible choices and a coalition built on principles—not political opportunism,” he said.

Similarly, Desmond Stephen, an Action Democratic Party, ADP, House of Assembly candidate, accused the coalition of attempting to create the impression that the 2027 election had already been decided.

Wike, however, has remained confident that the coalition’s candidates will prevail.

His opponents argue that resentment over the declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State and the political crisis that followed could influence voters’ decisions in 2027.

With the PDP’s traditional dominance in Rivers weakened by the party’s internal crisis, candidates such as ADC’s Gabriel Pidomson, NDC’s Dumo Lulu-Briggs and Chinda are expected to be major contenders.

Gombe: Pantami realignment adds another dimension

In Gombe State, former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Isa Pantami, has moved to the PDP with the backing of the Rainbow Coalition.

The development illustrates the coalition’s complex political strategy: supporting Tinubu at the presidential level while backing candidates positioned against APC structures in individual states.

The arrangement has intensified questions about whether coalition supporters can successfully persuade voters to separate their presidential choice from their decisions in other elections.

Cross River: Opposition gains challenge APC

Cross River is also emerging as another battleground.

The Rainbow Coalition is challenging APC candidates, including Governor Bassey Otu, while the PDP has fielded Arthur Jarvis as its governorship candidate.

The PDP has also mobilised candidates for the Senate, House of Representatives and State House of Assembly across the state.

The growing strength of the PDP was underscored by the recent defection of about 500 APC members in the state to the opposition party. The Osopel Support Group, with members drawn from seven local government areas in the Cross River South Senatorial District, led the defection.

The development has raised questions about whether PDP supporters will heed the coalition’s reported call to back Tinubu for president while voting for PDP candidates in other contests.

Dr Lyon Ebamane, a lecturer at the University of Calabar, argued that the strategy could fail because many PDP supporters were likely to vote for the party’s presidential candidate rather than split their ballots.

He also suggested that Wike’s continued association with the PDP could be influenced by longer-term political calculations ahead of 2031.

Wike: ‘Adeleke belongs to us’

Wike, meanwhile, has dismissed the concerns surrounding the coalition and insisted that it is steadily expanding its influence.

Speaking with journalists in Abuja, he said Osun State Governor-elect Ademola Adeleke remained part of the Rainbow Coalition despite his departure from the PDP platform.

Wike said Adeleke had to seek another platform because of internal disagreements within the PDP but remained supportive of President Tinubu.

He also declared that his political mission was to make opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, uncomfortable ahead of the 2027 election.

Wike further argued that Nigeria currently lacked a clearly defined opposition party capable of mounting a formidable challenge to Tinubu.

But political analysts have warned that the Rainbow Coalition’s greatest strength could also become its biggest weakness.

By supporting Tinubu for president while simultaneously backing candidates of different parties against APC candidates at the state and National Assembly levels, the coalition risks creating precisely the electoral confusion its critics fear.

With the 2027 elections drawing closer, the crucial question is whether Nigerian voters will successfully separate their presidential preference from their choices in other contests—or whether the Rainbow Coalition’s multi-party strategy will ultimately cost the APC votes at the very moment it seeks to secure Tinubu’s re-election

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