By Frontline Reporters

At least 835 people were killed in 612 security-related incidents across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in October 2026, according to a report by SARI Global, a security intelligence and risk analysis firm.

The report identified armed bandits and insurgents as the most frequent perpetrators and deadliest actors during the month, marking a significant shift in the country’s security situation. It attributed the rising death toll to intensified armed clashes, attacks on communities, military engagements and other security operations.

The findings were contained in SARI Global’s Nigeria Monthly Security Overview for October 2026, which showed a 14 per cent increase in security incidents and a 42 per cent rise in fatalities compared with September. The firm described the development as the sharpest monthly increase in fatalities recorded in recent months.

According to the report, armed conflict accounted for 617 of the 835 deaths, although a substantial number involved armed-group fighters killed during failed attacks and military airstrikes. Non-state armed groups initiated 221 incidents and were linked to 480 deaths, compared with 218 incidents and 197 fatalities attributed to government-affiliated forces.

SARI Global identified Zamfara as the state with the highest number of security incidents, recording 69 cases and 137 deaths. Borno followed with 51 incidents and 180 fatalities, the highest death toll among the states, largely resulting from clashes between Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters and military forces around the Lake Chad region. Plateau recorded 65 incidents and 62 deaths, while Katsina, Kebbi, Lagos, Sokoto, Niger, Rivers and Benue also featured among the 10 most affected states.

One of the deadliest incidents occurred on October 23 in Binnari, a market community in Karim Lamido Local Government Area of Taraba State, where armed men attacked a weekly market, a central mosque shortly after Friday prayers and a local vigilante office. The attackers reportedly pursued fleeing residents towards the Benue River, where several drowned. The death toll eventually rose to at least 62, with 52 others injured and 15 bodies recovered from the river.

The report noted that another attack on the same community on October 27 highlighted the continued vulnerability of the area. It observed that the scale and pattern of violence bore similarities to mass-casualty bandit attacks recorded in parts of north-western Nigeria.

In Zamfara, the security situation was characterised by growing attacks on major roads and the alleged imposition of illegal levies on communities. Bandits reportedly blocked the Gusau-Dansadau Road on October 16, destroying nine vehicles and imposing a N50 million levy on communities in Dansadau District. More than 300 residents were displaced.

The report also documented an ambush on an escorted convoy of traders near Gurusu on October 11, in which at least 20 people, including soldiers and police officers, were killed. Although troops reopened the road on October 21, bandits reportedly blocked it again on October 31, underscoring the persistent security challenges along the route.

ISWAP also sustained attacks on military installations across the North-East, targeting bases in Kukawa, Mairari, Hong, Buni Yadi, Bitta and Bama. The incidents included an improvised explosive device attack near Gamboru that killed nine soldiers and an armed drone attack in Gudumbali. The military, however, reported repelling several assaults and neutralising dozens of insurgents.

SARI Global further identified the targeting of religious leaders and attacks on humanitarian organisations as emerging concerns during the month. Among the incidents was the assassination of Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka in Dutsin-Ma, Katsina State, on October 26, an attack claimed by Ansaru. The report also cited the killing of a female non-governmental organisation worker in Sokoto, the looting of an NGO health facility in Ngala and a raid on a Maiduguri compound housing seven United Nations national staff.

Beyond the security crisis, the report highlighted growing political tensions ahead of the 2027 general elections. It documented about 46 incidents involving political parties, campaigns and political thugs, including attacks on campaigners of the governing All Progressives Congress in at least five northern states.

SARI Global warned that the increasing number of security operations should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of an improving security environment, noting that armed groups remained responsible for a higher number of incidents and fatalities during the reporting period.

The firm provides security intelligence, conflict monitoring, threat analysis and operational risk advisory services to international humanitarian organisations, United Nations agencies, diplomatic missions and businesses operating in high-risk environments across Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

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