By Damilola Aina

Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol is showing fresh signs of resurgence, as supplies from domestic refineries plunged sharply in July, widening the role of foreign products in the nation’s fuel market despite the expansion of local refining capacity.

Latest data from Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum operations for July 2026 showed that domestic Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supplies fell by 21 per cent month-on-month, from 32.5 million litres per day in June to 25.8 million litres per day in July. In contrast, petrol imports rose by nine per cent, from 18.1 million litres to 19.7 million litres per day.

The combined effect was a 10 per cent decline in total daily PMS receipts, which dropped from 50.6 million litres in June to 45.5 million litres in July. While locally refined petrol remained the dominant source of supply, the figures indicate a growing dependence on imports to bridge the gap created by weakening domestic output.

The latest development represents a continuation of a worrying trend that emerged in June, when petrol imports jumped by 207 per cent to 18.1 million litres per day, even as domestic supplies fell by 22 per cent to 32.5 million litres. In July, local supplies declined further, while imports continued their upward trajectory, underscoring the fragility of Nigeria’s quest to achieve sustainable fuel self-sufficiency.

A major factor behind the decline appears to be reduced crude availability for domestic refineries. Crude oil receipts by local refineries fell from 632,000 barrels per day in June to 585,000 barrels per day in July, representing an eight per cent reduction. The decline coincided with the sharp fall in domestic petrol supplies, highlighting the critical link between adequate crude feedstock and refinery output.

The development comes at a time when Nigeria’s refining landscape is undergoing a historic transformation, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and ongoing efforts to revive government-owned refineries. The Dangote refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of more than 71 per cent during the period and recorded average petrol production of about 25.9 million litres per day—almost identical to the 25.8 million litres of domestic PMS receipts recorded nationwide.

The figures therefore present a paradox for Africa’s largest crude oil producer: Nigeria now possesses significantly greater domestic refining capacity, yet a decline in refinery feedstock and output can quickly trigger a renewed influx of imported petroleum products. The latest data suggest that increased refining capacity alone may not guarantee fuel independence without reliable crude supply and sustained refinery operations.

The pressure was not limited to petrol. Diesel imports also returned to the market in July after none was recorded in the previous month. Total Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) receipts surged by 46 per cent, from 16.2 million litres per day in June to 23.6 million litres in July. Domestic diesel supplies slipped slightly to 15.7 million litres per day, while imports contributed 7.9 million litres daily.

Meanwhile, domestic fuel demand weakened considerably. PMS consumption, measured by volumes trucked into the domestic market, fell by 25 per cent from 47.4 million litres per day in June to 35.7 million litres in July. Despite the decline, petrol stock sufficiency improved from 19.7 days to 22.4 days, indicating that available inventories could cover domestic demand for a longer period.

Diesel stock sufficiency also strengthened, rising by 25 per cent from 37.1 days to 46.5 days, even as consumption declined from 16 million litres to 14.7 million litres per day. The figures suggest that weaker demand, rather than an outright shortage of products, contributed to the improvement in stock cover during the month.

The Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market, however, recorded a more encouraging shift towards domestic supply. Total LPG receipts rose from 5.1 kilotonnes per day to 5.3 kilotonnes, while domestic supply jumped by 22 per cent from 3.6 kilotonnes to 4.4 kilotonnes daily. At the same time, LPG imports fell by 40 per cent, from 1.5 kilotonnes to 0.9 kilotonnes per day, while consumption increased by seven per cent to 4.4 kilotonnes daily.

Domestic gas supply, on the other hand, declined by eight per cent, from 5.116 billion cubic feet per day to 4.723 billion cubic feet per day, including volumes supplied to the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited. Aviation Turbine Kerosene receipts also fell from 2.5 million litres to 1.9 million litres per day, while consumption declined from 2.9 million litres to 1.7 million litres.

The July figures ultimately underline a critical reality in Nigeria’s petroleum sector: the country’s expanding refining capacity has dramatically altered the supply equation, but local production remains vulnerable to fluctuations in crude availability and refinery performance. As imports once again gain ground, the challenge for policymakers is no longer simply to build refineries, but to ensure that they have the crude, infrastructure and operational stability required to consistently meet domestic fuel demand.

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